BP forecasts robust global energy demand 2030

BP forecasts robust global energy demand to 2030

11:28 PM, 19th January 2012
BP forecasts robust global energy demand to 2030
Bob Dudley, CEO, BP.

LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM: Global energy demand will continue to grow over the next twenty years, albeit at a slowing annual rate, fuelled by economic and population growth in non-OECD countries. Increased energy efficiency and strong growth for renewable energy is also suggested in BP’s latest Energy Outlook 2030.

The energy demand is likely to grow by 39 per cent by 2030 or 1.6 per cent annually, almost entirely in non-OECD countries; consumption in OECD countries is expected to rise by just 4 per cent. The period should also see increased fuel-switching, with more gas and renewables use instead of coal and oil. That gradual switching should see renewables, including biofuels, continue to be fastest growing sources of energy globally, rising at 8 per cent plus, quicker even than natural gas, the fastest growing fossil fuel at 2 per cent a year over to 2030.

“This report is by turns challenging, fascinating and stimulating for anyone in the energy business. It helps us to be both realistic and optimistic. The main message is that we need to have an open, competitive energy sector, which encourages innovation and thereby maximises efficiency in order to enjoy energy that is sufficient, secure and sustainable into the future,” said Bob Dudley, CEO, BP.

The impact of globalisation and competition will continue to deliver a remarkable convergence in energy intensity around the world, a measure of energy use per unit of national economic output. The growth of unconventional supply, including US shale oil and gas, Canadian oil sands and Brazilian deepwaters, against a background of a gradual decline in oil demand, will see the Western hemisphere become almost totally energy self-sufficient by 2030.

Oil, the world’s leading fuel today, will continue to lose market share although demand for hydrocarbon liquids will still reach 103 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2030, up by 18 per cent from 2010. This means the world will still need to bring on enough liquids - oil, biofuels and others - to meet that forecast 16 million b/d of extra demand by 2030 and replace declining output from existing sources. Coal growth will wane in 2020-30 decade and gas growth will remain steady and non-fossil fuels are likely to contribute nearly half of the growth after 2020. Power generation is expected to be the fastest growing user of energy in the period to 2030.

This year’s Energy Outlook 2030 examines in more detail several important facets of the global energy story. In China, growth of energy use is expected to slow significantly after 2020 as the economy matures. India’s energy growth path is unlikely to replicate China’s energy intensive growth path. It will more than double its energy use to 2030, heavily based on coal.

Transportation is likely to be the slowest growing sector due to improvements in fuel efficiency and hybridization of vehicles. Hybrid vehicles (including plug-ins) will meet anticipated fuel economy targets in 2030; oil is likely to account for 87 per cent of transport sector energy use, down from 95 per cent, with biofuels filling most of the gap. Global CO2 emissions are likely to rise by about 28 per cent by 2030.

Also bolstered by supply growth from biofuels as well as unconventional oil and gas, North America’s energy deficit will turn into a small surplus by 2030. In contrast, Europe’s energy deficit remains at current levels for oil and coal but will increase by some two thirds for natural gas, supplied by LNG and pipelines from former Soviet Union. China’s energy deficit across all fuels will widen by more than a factor of five and India’s, mainly of oil and coal, will more than double in the period to 2030.

(C) WOC News

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