Cefic revises downward 2011 forecast EU chemicals sector output

Cefic revises downward 2011 forecast for EU chemicals sector output

10:37 PM, 30th September 2011
Cefic revises downward 2011 forecast for EU chemicals sector output

MADRID, SPAIN: Growth in EU chemicals production in 2011 is now predicted to be 2.5 per cent for the EU-27, ex pharma, Cefic said recently. The updated forecast comes from Cefic’s Economic Task Force, which put together a summary forecast of chemicals sector economists. Cefic originally communicated in November last year that EU chemicals output growth would be 2.5 per cent in 2011. That forecast was revised in June 2011 to 4.5 per cent growth. The forecast for EU chemicals output growth in 2012 remains unchanged at 2.5 per cent.

Cause of 2011 forecast revision due to slowdown in second quarter 2011 and likely stall in third quarter 2011

EU chemicals production in the second quarter of 2011 grew at a more moderate pace after an impressive first quarter and the change was in-line with EU industrial growth. Growth is expected to fall markedly in third quarter 2011, however, but is considered a temporary pause – no “double dip” is expected. Also the group found that the level of production remains below all-time peak

Data from the first seven months of 2011 show EU chemicals production is 3.2 per cent below 2007peak, but should reach the pre-crisis threshold toward mid-2013.

EU manufacturing production growth in 2011 was revised downward as well to five per cent, and 2.5 per cent next year.  EU gross domestic product is forecast to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2011, slightly down from 1.8 per cent communicated in June. Cefic now predicts EU GDP growth in 2012 at only 1 per cent.

Sources of uncertainty include continued turbulence in the eurozone due to unresolved problems with sovereign debt. 

For the first six months of 2011, the EU had a net trade surplus €20.4 billion with trading partners, off by €3.2 billion during the same period in 2010. The number is still strong in historical terms.

Data from first seven months of 2011 show EU chemicals production is 3.2 per cent below 2007 peak level, but should reach the pre-crisis threshold toward mid-2013.

© WOC News

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